The title here says it all.  But the extent and duration remain subject to some debate.  David Blanchflower argues in the Guardian:

The flow of migrants into the UK, who grease the wheels of the labour market, is now at its lowest level since records began. By that I mean they make the UK economy more flexible and able to respond more quickly to changes in demand. They are free to move about the country.

Declines in the inflow of these skilled migrants will lower GDP as it will reduce mobility in the UK economy and cause skill shortages. Not unrelated to that there are already signs of the housing market also slowing. Migrants need houses. According to the latest monthly snapshot from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, house prices in London and the south-east are falling already.

This has, Blanchflower notes, led to wages remaining at nearly 7% below what they were at the start of the Great Recession in 2008, with little relief in sight.

The upside, Andrew Sentence notes:  growth in the global economy could provide a lift to Britain’s doldrums.  But in my view, the UK will have to be positioned to take advantage of it, which given its still very unclear trade ties to Europe (and the rest of the world) remains far from evident.

Comments are closed.